UNC football: Ranking 2013 schedule in order of difficulty

CHAPEL HILL -- And welcome to football season.

It hasn't been much of an offseason. Between baseball, a trip to Omaha, furloughs and covering the missteps of a certain prominent North Carolina basketball player, my mental clock hasn't quite registered that football season is upon us. But this is a good thing. The blog is about to become a lot more active than it has been in recent weeks, so please make this a part of regular reading rotation.

I have a few things planned between now and when the Tar Heels begin the season on Aug. 29 at South Carolina. Look out in the coming weeks for a primer on each of UNC's opponents, for a countdown of the players that will be most influential to the Tar Heels' success this season and a position-by-position rundown of the team. For now, we'll start nice and easy: With a look at UNC's schedule.

And it is:

August
29 - at South Carolina

September
7 - vs. Middle Tennessee State
21 - at Georgia Tech
28 - vs. East Carolina

October
5 - at Virginia Tech
17 - vs. Miami
26 - vs. Boston College

November
2 - at N.C. State
9 - vs. Virginia
16 - at Pittsburgh
23 - vs. Old Dominion
30 - vs. Duke

First reaction: That's kind of strange, for a team to playing nearly half of its games in November. Second reaction: That's a difficult opening stretch, with UNC's three most difficult games among the first five - and, really, four most difficult games among the first six.

Here's how I'd rank the games, by most difficult to least:
-at South Carolina
-at Virginia Tech
-at Georgia Tech
-at N.C. State
-vs. Miami
-at Pitt
-vs. Middle Tennessee State
-vs. ECU
-vs. Virginia
-vs. Boston College
-vs. Duke
-vs. Old Dominion

Usually when you look at a schedule, several tiers emerge. There are the guaranteed victories. There are the "should wins." There are the toss-ups. The games in which a team will be a sure underdog. And those that seem nearly impossible to win.

But when I look at UNC's schedule, I see fewer of those tiers. I see six games that I'd give UNC at least an 80 percent chance or better of winning. Then I see three toss-ups. And in the rest, UNC will be the underdog - one of them a significant underdog.

Here's the percentage I give the Tar Heels of winning each game:
-at South Carolina: .15
-vs. Middle Tennessee State: .8
-at Georgia Tech: .4
-vs. East Carolina: .85
-at Virginia Tech: .35
-vs. Miami: .55
-vs. Boston College: .9
-at N.C. State: .6
-vs. Virginia: .85
-at Pittsburgh: .55
-vs. Old Dominion: .99
-vs. Duke: .9

Add all those percentages up and it comes to: 7.89.

Or, translated to a 12-game football season, about eight wins. 8-4 That sounds about right. I'm not quite ready to make my season predictions yet - those will come later, closer to the start of the season - but 8-4 is probably a pretty good baseline in terms of expectations for this team. With some mild luck, 9-3 isn't out of the question. With some very good fortune, a 10-win season could be in the realm.

I really only see one sure defeat - the season-opener at South Carolina. Beyond that, UNC should be starting the season with six wins: Middle Tennessee State, ECU, Boston College, Virginia, Old Dominion and Duke. Win two of the five games against Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Miami, N.C. State and Pitt, and that'd be eight wins total. Win three of those five, and 9-3 becomes realistic.

Of course, the Tar Heels would significantly raise expectations with a victory at in Columbia, S.C., near the end of August. The season is upon us, folks ...

- Andrew Carter